Walmart Opens Its 14-Day Holiday Sale Today: What the Deal Calendar Tells Wholesale Toy Buyers

Overview

Walmart's Early Black Friday event opens today, November 12 — the first of three holiday sale events running through December 2. Toys lead the opening wave, with Walmart's deals page previewing discounts of up to 55% on toys and 25 toys on its Top Toys list priced under $25. For wholesale toy buyers, the calendar matters less as a reorder trigger — Christmas stock is already in the country — than as a pricing and demand signal for the spring range.

Three events, 14 days, toys first

Walmart announced the schedule on October 26: three events totalling 14 days of deals, up from 10 days last year. Early Black Friday runs November 12–15, opening online at 12:01 a.m. ET today and in stores at 6 a.m. local time. The main Black Friday event runs November 23–29, online from November 23 and in stores from 6 a.m. on Black Friday itself, November 27; stores are closed on Thanksgiving, November 26. Cyber Monday runs November 30 to December 2, online only.

Walmart+ members get the first 24 hours on select online-only deal drops in the first two events, before the remaining items open to everyone. The value framing is explicit: thousands of gifts under $20, and a Top Toys list with 25 toys under $25. "This season, we're bringing customers and members incredible savings across three major shopping events," said Julie Barber, chief merchandising officer, Walmart U.S.

Why the season is stretching out

The stretch is a response to price pressure. Walmart's own research says 60% of shoppers feel the price of gifts affects how they feel about the season, and 70% say lower prices would make holiday shopping easier. The National Retail Federation forecasts November–December holiday sales of $1.013 trillion, up 4.2% year over year, while U.S. toy prices rose 6.6% year over year in September, according to Circana. Shoppers are answering by buying early: Walmart's 2026 Holiday Trend Report found 38.4% expect to do most of their holiday buying from October through the first half of November, and only 1.9% plan to leave most of it until December 16 or later.

Walmart is not alone in pulling demand forward. Target ran its early Black Friday event November 5–7, with 40% off select toys, and its Top 50 toy list landed the same week. The big-box calendar is now a three-week race for the early buyer, not a single-weekend event.

What wholesale buyers should take from it

First, value price points are the traffic driver. When the largest U.S. retailer anchors its toy story on under-$20 gifts and a 25-toy list under $25, it is telling suppliers where the volume sits. A spring range that only covers the top end misses the price points that bring shoppers through the door.

Second, sensory and collectible formats are the demand story. Circana's CPG Demand Signals report says recent U.S. general-merchandise unit growth was spurred by toys and led by demand for squishy toys. Wholesale data points the same way: Faire, the wholesale marketplace used by many independent stores, says Advent calendar orders are up 63% year over year, and toy and squishy calendars now account for more than half of all Advent calendar spend on its platform. Faire cautions that the jump comes from a very low starting point — so stock the category and reorder into what sells, rather than overcommitting.

Third, safety is a selling point this season. The Toy Association opened its sixth annual Toy Safety Awareness Month on November 2, with a Wakefield Research survey of 1,000 U.S. parents: 87% say a counterfeit toy's lower price is not worth the potential safety risk to their child, yet 84% believe knockoff squishy toys are safe. That gap is an opening for buyers who source directly from manufacturers and authorized distributors — authenticity is something a listing can state plainly, and this season shoppers are listening for it.

Fourth, do not plan on wholesale costs falling. The big manufacturers' third-quarter results got a one-time lift from tariff refunds — $88 million at Mattel, about $55 million at Hasbro — while inflation and higher royalties more than offset other gains. Refunds do not recur, so the deal calendar is a retail pricing signal, not a sign that factory costs are coming down. Budget spring reorders on that basis.

The practical conclusion is the same one the port data pointed to last week: the Christmas assortment is set, and an overseas order placed now cannot rescue a holiday range. What the next three weeks will show is which categories and price points move first — and that is the information to carry into the spring 2027 range.

HundredPower, a Hong Kong-based exporter established in 1992 with its own factory in Shenzhen and a catalogue of more than 15,000 SKUs, builds its party favors, glow toys, bubble toys, and squishy lines around the same logic: categories that sell season after season.

Common buyer questions

Frequently asked questions